“How are we supposed to plan when we don't even know what's going to happen next week?”
I hear or read this question every day.
Mostly from CEOs who are torn between “We need more planning security!” and “We need to become more agile!” It's as if they are trying to step on the gas and brake at the same time.
McKinsey studies show that 38% of all digital transformation initiatives fail in the scaling phase – mostly because they stick to rigid plans instead of responding flexibly.
The bad news: times are not going to get any calmer. The good news: you don't need them to.
What you need is real-time strategy.
Forget the 200-page strategy papers with five-year plans. That's strategy museum. Today, you need something different: strategies as hypotheses, not as laws.
The paradigm shift:
Old way of thinking: “We analyze everything, then we decide, then we implement.” New reality: “We have a well-founded assumption, test it quickly, learn from it, and adjust accordingly.”
That's not less strategic – it's smarter.
My favorite counterexample:
A mechanical engineering company with 5,000 employees. In 2019, they spent a year developing their “Digitalization Strategy 2025.” It was perfectly thought out and took all scenarios into account – except for a pandemic.
March 2020: Strategy obsolete. New strategy discussion in a “small group.” Duration: another eight months.
Meanwhile, the competitor reviewed and adjusted its assumptions every three months. The result? Today, it is the market leader in the “hardware and services” sector.
How does real-time strategy work in practice?
1. Formulate strategies as hypotheses
Instead of: “We will become the leading provider of AI-supported solutions.” Better: “We believe that customers are willing to pay 15% more for AI-powered solutions if they can be proven to save 30% in time.”
Notice the difference? The second statement is verifiable.
2. Introduce short planning cycles
90-day cycles instead of annual plans. Every three months, ask yourself:
- What have we learned?
- Which assumptions were wrong?
- What will we do differently in the next 90 days?
3. Scenario planning instead of precision landing
“What if...” becomes your best friend.
- ...interest rates continue to rise?
- ...the main supplier fails?
- ...the US remains unattractive as a customer due to tariffs?
- ...AI disrupts our industry?
You don't have the perfect plan for every scenario, but you do have clear decision-making principles.
4. Decision premises instead of detailed plans
Real-life example: A software company doesn't define “We're hiring 50 new developers,” but rather “We're investing in development as long as the customer lifetime value is three times the acquisition costs.”
This is flexible yet clear.
A practical example that works:
Medium-sized service provider, 350 employees. In 2022, it was clear that “something with AI is going to be important.” But what exactly?
Their real-time strategy:
- Hypothesis: “Our customers pay for time savings, not technology.”
- Test: Three small AI pilot projects with different types of customers
- Learning time: 8 weeks each
- Result: One pilot project was a breakthrough, two were flops.
Today, two years later: 40% higher margins thanks to AI-supported services.
The most common real-time strategy killers:
- The perfectionist: “We need more data before we decide.” While they are gathering data, the market decides for them.
- The panic adapter: Changes direction every two weeks because they consider every new piece of information to be a reason to change strategy. That's not agile, it's reckless.
- The analysis paralysis sufferer: Develops the perfect plan for every scenario. When something happens that wasn't in their seven scenarios, they are helpless.
What you need instead:
- Decision speed over decision perfection 80% right and fast is better than 100% right and too late.
- Clear principles instead of detailed plans “We never invest more than 20% of our liquidity in a single project and stop if the target margin is not achieved” is more valuable than a 50-page investment plan.
- Learning speed over planning accuracy Those who learn faster win. Period.
My tip for this week:
Take your current strategy and translate it into hypotheses:
- What do you assume?
- How can you test it?
- What would convince you otherwise?
If you can't do that, you have a problem. Then your strategy is a belief, not a testable assumption.
The uncomfortable truth:
Real-time strategy is more demanding than traditional strategic planning. You have to constantly think, question, and adapt. But you stay alive.
The alternative? Perfect strategies for a world that no longer exists.
Sources: McKinsey & Company (2020) “Digital Transformation Survey,” Harvard Business Review (2022) “4 Common Reasons Strategies Fail,” BCG Strategic Agility Research
Your question: Where have you seen that quick adaptation was more important than perfect planning? And where do you struggle to let go of old planning routines?
P.S.: Next week, we'll get practical: How to take strategies from PowerPoint hell and turn them into reality – and get everyone on board.
